Start, Bench or G League? Predictions for Every 2023 1st

The majority of NBA rookies project to play meaningful roles in 2023-24.

Some of the top picks should instantly become featured scorers in their rotations. More will start after landing in favorable situations.

The majority will come off the bench and provide speciality skills or traits. And a handful will spend most of the season in the G League, whether due to their team's deep rotation or a need to build up their confidence, bodies or skill levels.

Here, we've predicted how each 2023 first-round pick will spend the majority of his rookie season: as a starter, bench player or G Leaguer.

Role: Starter

Usage type: Lead scoring option

The San Antonio Spurs won't ease Victor Wembanyama in. They'll give him the same high-usage role he had on Metropolitans 92, where he finished second in France's top league in scoring and flashed the type of creation and shot-making suited for featured touches.

In a season that should be all about player development for San Antonio, Wembanyama should have a green light to play through mistakes and continue experimenting with his ball-handling, one-on-one game and shooting range.

He'll make the biggest impact early with his physical tools and mobility for finishing, putting back misses and contesting shots defensively. It wouldn't be surprising if his field-goal percentage fell off from last year, however, as Wembanyama figures to be a high-volume, erratic shooter during his first season in the NBA.

Role: Bench

Usage: Second-unit scorer, first-unit shot-maker

Brandon Miller figures to come off the bench to start the season behind Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward.

He'll still get minutes at times with the first unit, which could use his catch-and-shoot game. But Miller could have some trouble scoring efficiently early, assuming his struggles executing after creation and finishing while at Alabama resurface during his first NBA season.

Those issues could motivate Miller to lean more into his playmaking, as he's an impressive live-dribble passer with the size and ball skills to see and hit shooters and roll men.

As a scorer, he should be dependent early on spot-up, movement and pull-up shooting. That could result in both offensive outbursts and inconsistent production if Hayward and/or Miles Bridges have regular roles.

Role: Starter

Usage: Lead guard

While Scoot Henderson's role largely depends on what the Portland Trail Blazers do with Damian Lillard, the rookie figures to take over at some point.

If the Blazers don't trade Lillard by the start of the season, it's worth wondering if he would suit up for them knowing the front office is actively seeking out trades for an inevitable deal.

Lillard playing would complicate Henderson's projected role, particularly with Anfernee Simons in the picture as well. But the best bet is still on Henderson being handed the keys right away and his ball-handling, speed, explosion, strength, pull-up game and playmaking translating quickly.

He'll be inconsistent from three and frustrate at times by taking contested two-point jumpers. But the Blazers wouldn't draft the ball-dominant Henderson if they weren't confident in his lead-guard potential. The likelihood of a Lillard trade means the rookie should have plenty of freedom to play through mistakes.

Role: Bench

Usage: Second-unit playmaker/two-way energizer

The Houston Rockets' signings of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks will limit Amen Thompson's rookie role. He also suffered a foot injury during his first summer-league game, which deprived the 20-year-old of an opportunity to build some confidence and momentum.

He'll begin his career coming off the bench and being used as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and athletic weapon for transition scoring and defensive playmaking. While he played only one game in Las Vegas, he showed how dangerous his burst can be in space and how functional his quickness, bounce and coordination are for finishing, forcing turnovers and contesting shots.

A reduced role should force Thompson to play to his strengths and have an efficient rookie season. But it could also delay his inevitable breakout given the expected usage of VanVleet, Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.

Role: Starter

Usage: Athletic specialist, transition playmaker

With Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey expected to dominate ball-handling and creation duties for the Detroit Pistons, Ausar Thompson will be playing to his athletic strengths early on.

As a starter, he'll use transition and dribble handoffs for offense, while his rookie role should allow him to work on spot-up shooting. He should also add sneaky value with his passing in fast-break situations, as he's shown a knack for making hit-ahead passes and locating teammates while handling the ball in the open floor.

Head coach Monty Williams may want to test Thompson's outstanding defensive tools/movement right away against the league's top wings. His length, quickness and reactions seem like they could turn the 20-year-old into one of the league's tougher perimeter stoppers.

The Pistons could also think about bringing Thompson off the bench, which would give him more creation reps and playmaking chances with the second unit. Regardless, Thompson will thrive most this season getting downhill and scoring in the lane. His shot-making figures to be erratic and streaky.

Role: Starter

Usage: Combo-guard starter, primary ball-handler off bench

Anthony Black may not start right away, but he will at some point of the season when it becomes evident that his size for a ball-handler, passing and defense can be effective right away.

He won't have a set position. While he's best on the ball, using his handle and change of pace to get to spots and his height and vision to make plays over defenders, the 6'7" Black should be interchangeable between the 1, 2 and 3.

Head coach Jamahl Mosley will have a tough call on how to play and stagger Black with Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony. But the rookie's potential to create quality looks and defend multiple positions could give him an edge.

On the other hand, Fultz earned the starting job, and Mosley might prefer to use a shooter like Gary Harris between him and Franz Wagner. When Black comes off the bench, he'll split ball-handling duties with Anthony and Suggs, though the rookie figures to take the lead with his superior basketball IQ and decision-making.

Role: Bench

Usage: Bench scorer/energizer

Still 18 years old for another two weeks, Bilal Coulibaly will presumably come off the bench for the rebuilding Washington Wizards behind Jordan Poole and Corey Kispert.

Coulibaly's development should be the team's main priority, but the Wizards might initially value Kispert's stability and floor-spacing with the starters.

Coming off the bench should give Coulibaly more chances to build on the flashes of creation we saw later in Metropolitans 92's season. But he'll still generate most of his offense by tapping into his explosiveness for straight-line drives, finishes and putbacks. And he should look serviceable as a spot-up shooter, though his percentage figures to fall in the 30-35 percent range.

The Wizards are in zero rush after the Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis trades. They'll be more inclined to give Coulibaly starts later in the season when they're thinking more about the 2024 draft than picking up wins.

Role: Starter

Usage: Spot-up scorer

Jarace Walker ended up in a favorable spot with the Indiana Pacers. He'll have a path to the starting lineup gets to play with one of the NBA's best young passers in Tyrese Haliburton.

Walker likely won't get immediate creation reps, though he should be capable of making plays in ball-screen situations. As a rookie, he will be spaced out around the wings, waiting for catch-and-shoot looks and opportunities to attack closeouts.

The 6'8", 235-pound forward should be a capable spot-up shooter, though his upside will really shine when he puts the ball down. Aside from scoring with some set shot-making, floater touch and finishes, Walker could wind up defending opposing teams' top offensive forwards with his chiseled frame, physicality and wingspan.

Role: Bench

Usage type: Three-and-D reserve

The Utah Jazz's acquisition of John Collins likely crushed Taylor Hendricks' chances of having a significant role as a rookie. However, he could still approach 20 minutes per game with a mix of shooting and defensive versatility that makes him easy to fit into any lineup.

Making an All-Rookie team may be a challenge for Hendricks given his projected role and limited creation skill. His offensive production will come and go, though he should provide reliable spot-up shooting and off-ball finishing.

Hendricks' defense may pop the most at first given his physical tools, mobility and athleticism. Utah's second unit will need his rim protection if he plays next to Kelly Olynyk.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve two-way playmaker

Cason Wallace may have to come off the bench for his first few years with the Oklahoma City Thunder, unless head coach Mark Daigneault is willing to think outside the box with a three-guard lineup.

Wallace will likely begin his career playing behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, presumably running offense to start second quarters.

Wallace's shooting development and potential to guard bigger players may determine Daigneault's willingness to play the rookie with the starters. He did make five catch-and-shoot threes in his summer-league debut, while the defensive instincts he's shown in high school and college are some of the best in his draft class.

Between his three-level shot-making, passing IQ, efficient finishing and defense, Wallace is too well-rounded for a positional logjam to keep him from finding ways to earn time and contribute as a rookie.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve shooter

The Orlando Magic suddenly have a deep rotation, but they could still use Jett Howard's shooting.

He should have a chance to earn minutes behind Franz Wagner, though he'll have to beat out Caleb Houstan, a similar shot-maker with positional size.

Howard will play a spot-up-heavy role, providing off-ball scoring with his standstill and movement shooting. He just might not have many chances to create with Orlando's handful of guards and the offense running through Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Howard figures to struggle inside the arc, where he lacks burst for blowing by and picking up easy baskets and free throws.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve finisher/shot-blocker

Dereck Lively II struggled early at Duke with physicality, anticipating and fouling, and it seems reasonable to expect another adjustment period as he transitions to the NBA. Since the Dallas Mavericks are in win-now mode, they might play Dwight Powell and Richaun Holmes ahead of the rookie.

Lively will still receive backup minutes throughout the season, and he possesses enough size and length to serve as a useful finishing option and threatening shot-blocker in 2023-24. The obvious improvement he made with his reads and positioning last season also suggests he's wired to learn from mistakes.

His playing time figures to be limited early on, but showing he can make the right reads in pick-and-roll coverage will be key to getting and staying on the floor. In the meantime, offensive limitations and a probable need to build up defensive IQ will limit Lively's role.

Role: Bench

Usage: Spot-up scorer/shooter

If all three of O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes begin the season with the Toronto Raptors, there won't be room in the starting lineup for Gradey Dick. A Siakam trade could open the door for him, but in the meantime, the rookie will serve as a rotational catch-and-shoot weapon who has some additional ways to score off the ball.

Dick will rely mostly on spot-up and movement shooting opportunities, and he has the positional size and stroke to continue knocking down threes at a decent clip. He's going to show more with occasional flashes of pull-ups, shot-making versatility and athletic plays around the rim.

Dick won't offer any creation this season, and opponents will target him on defense. His role will expand as he improves his physicality—or if the Raptors wind up dealing one of their starters.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve shooter

Jordan Hawkins should see some playing time off the bench for the New Orleans Pelicans this year with his NBA-ready shooting stroke.

The Pelicans won't expect any creation or playmaking from him. They'll use him strictly for off-ball shot-making, and Hawkins has the showcased the shot prep, range and overall fundamentals to continue drilling jumpers and scoring within a team's offensive flow.

With Dyson Daniels likely to see a jump in playing time, Hawkins would be a needed complement for spacing.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve two-way playmaker

Unless the Atlanta Hawks acquire another veteran ball-handler before the season, Kobe Bufkin is in position to operate as their second-unit playmaker.

Though we've seen him look aggressive early in summer league, Bufkin will presumably be asked to focus on setting up AJ Griffin and Bogdan Bogdanović. The rookie enters the league with high passing IQ, and he should be able to excite Atlanta's coaching staff with his defensive quickness and anticipation.

While his long-term shooting projection remains promising, he seems at least a year away from being able to consistently knock down threes. But he's still a capable enough shot-maker with crafty creation moves and finishes to provide some bench scoring.

Role: Bench

Usage: Lead bench scorer/playmaker

Keyonte George showed up to Summer League with a seemingly transformed body, sky-high confidence and a desire to show more passing.

He's likely to begin his career coming off the bench behind a healthy Collin Sexton. But seeing how easily George's game has translated in July and the flashes of playmaking he's delivered in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas (32 assists, 11 turnovers), the Utah Jazz front office and coaches are likely already picturing him as their long-term starting lead guard.

In the short term, he'll bring his special shot-making off the bench, playing on and off the ball. From IMG to Baylor and now Utah, George has showcased plenty of isolation scoring ability, especially with his pull-up and step-back. His range and movement shooting should also serve him well when Sexton or Jordan Clarkson are next to him handling the ball.

The rookie does have a tendency to be streaky and vulnerable to poor shot selection or defensive lapses. But George could have a chance to eventually take over a starting job— whether it's over Sexton or Clarkson—by continuing to build on his summer-league playmaking, limiting unforced errors and avoiding frequent cold slumps.

Role: Bench

Usage: Reserve playmaker

With Gabe Vincent better suited for a shot-making role, Jalen Hood-Schifino should have a chance to play some backup point guard minutes.

With strong positional size and passing feel, Hood-Schifino's playmaking should translate before his scoring. The college scouting report suggests he'll struggle finishing and consistently shooting threes.

The Los Angeles Lakers coaches will hold him more accountable for his decision-making, as he tends to be turnover prone. But they should value his ability to set the table and potentially guard both backcourt positions with his 6'10" wingspan.

He's also the type of streaky scorer whose pull-up game and confidence could result in the occasional scoring outburst.

Role: Starter

Usage: Glue guy

The Miami Heat presumably saw an instant contributor in Jaime Jaquez Jr., whose four-year college career, 225-pound frame, leadership at UCLA and versatility screamed NBA-ready. He could even compete for a starting job, particularly if Miami winds up trading Tyler Herro in a Damian Lillard deal and Jimmy Butler slides to the 2.

Shooting threes at a respectable rate should give Jaquez the best shot to start at one of the forward spots. He looked noticeably comfortable in limited summer-league action, making four of his first nine attempts.

Regardless, Jaquez's physicality, touch and basketball IQ will show and translate first. Though he's a useful cutter off the ball, Miami should be able to use him as a jumbo ball-handler who can attack and finish through contact or make live-dribble passes.

He may have trouble guarding some quicker wings, but head coach Erik Spoelstra figures to admire Jaquez's defensive competitiveness and his potential to body up with NBA 4s.

Role: Bench

Usage: Bench spark

Even with Chris Paul coming in, Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr should be motivated to find minutes for Brandin Podziemski's playmaking, shooting and two-way energy.

He won't be able to create for himself or score as easily as he did at Santa Clara. But his high-IQ passing should translate, and Podziemski has the type of confidence, range and touch to catch fire and provide sporadic jolts of shot-making with threes and floaters.

Hustle and instinct plays could ultimately help separate the rookie and drive his value this year, as Podziemski has an unteachable knack for tracking down misses, winning rebounding battles and forcing turnovers. Although he was mostly known for scoring in college, he's the type of player who can fill a box score and make an impact when his shot isn't falling.

Role: Bench

Usage: Transition/spot-up scoring

Cam Whitmore should receive minutes off the bench playing to his strengths as an athletic finisher, threatening spot-up shooter and physical, straight-line driver.

Whitmore should play exclusively off the ball as a rookie. He won't receive many creation reps, as he struggled last year making reads off the dribble, and Kevin Porter Jr., Amen Thompson and Tari Eason will rank higher in the Rockets' second-unit pecking order.

Houston should ultimately value Whitmore's ability to pick up easy baskets, catch-and-shoot and play-make on defense. Occasionally, he'll pull off a dribble move or step-back three that highlights more long-term scoring potential. But it seems reasonable to expect inconsistency and a poor assist-to-turnover ratio as a rookie.

Role: G League

Turning 19 on Friday, Noah Clowney is a project with a valued archetype. He's a stretch big who rebounds, blocks shots and defends pick-and-rolls.

He just seems too far away as a shooter and big who can put the ball down for the Brooklyn Nets to expect consistent contributions out of him right away. Clowney will be better off getting 30 minutes per game in the G League, where he can continue to build up his three-point confidence and skill level for attacking closeouts.

If Brooklyn plans to play Ben Simmons and/or Day'Ron Sharpe, it's difficult to picture Clowney getting much of a regular-season role.

Role: G League

A second foot surgery forced Dariq Whitehead to miss draft workouts and summer league. And with the Brooklyn Nets bringing back Royce O'Neale and signing Lonnie Walker IV, they'll likely prefer sending Whitehead to the G League rather than the end of their bench.

Whitehead had a limited role this past season at Duke and could use more on-ball reps and opportunities to build confidence with the Long Island Nets. Knowing he won't turn 19 until August, Brooklyn presumably never expected it was getting an instant contributor.

He should still eventually get a call-up and some NBA minutes thanks to a three-point stroke that's gotten better each of the last few years. The short-term outlook pictures a spot-up shooter who's still capable of creating his own jump shot with pull-ups and step-backs.

The hope long term is that he regains his explosiveness and improves his ability to apply rim pressure and score off the dribble.

Role: Bench

Usage: Off-ball bench scorer

The Portland Trail Blazers' opening-night rotation likely won't include Kris Murray. Now that the organization finally has a G League team, the rookie could wind up playing early with the Rip City Remix.

He's bound to surface with the Blazers at some point, as the coaching staff could picture his shot-making, cutting/finishing and motor translating to instant off-ball scoring and defensive activity. He'll be the type of player who doesn't need plays run or dribbles to score.

Knowing Murray will turn 23 in August, Portland presumably put some stock into the likelihood that he was more prepared to play right away.

Role: Bench

Usage: Energizer

Playing time will be limited early for Olivier-Maxence Prosper, though the Dallas Mavericks roster might not be deep enough for the rookie to spend too much time in the G League.

When his number is called, his role will be well-defined. Prosper has the physical tools, athleticism and motor to bring instant transition offense, hustle plays and defensive versatility.

Limited ball-handling and shooting skills means he'll begin his career behind Grant Williams, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber. But coach Jason Kidd may eventually decide it is time to add more defense and toughness behind Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway Jr., which could lead to him calling on the rookie to play an energizer role for the rotation.

Role: G League

The Detroit Pistons weren't thinking about fit when they drafted Marcus Sasser. The additions of Monte Morris and Joe Harris make it even more likely the rookie spends most of the year in a Motor City Cruise jersey.

Shot-making is Sasser's most NBA-ready skill, as he spent years at Houston producing with shooting versatility and range.

In the G League, there will be an emphasis on developing point guard skills and facilitating feel. But realistically, if Sasser is going to get a call-up, it will be for a Gabe Vincent-type, combo role that values his ability to make jumpers. The fact that he has a 6'7" wingspan bodes well for his potential to defend 2-guards and find more opportunities on the floor.

Role: G League

Andrew Nembhard's development and the addition of Bruce Brown Jr. will make it tough for coach Rick Carlisle to find time for Ben Sheppard.

A Buddy Hield trade in the final year of his deal would open up minutes for the rookie. Until then, Sheppard figures to produce in the G League, where he should have instant success with his mature, well-rounded offensive skill set that features sharpshooting versatility and pick-and-roll scoring.

If Sheppard does get an opportunity with the Pacers during the regular season, he'll be valued for his off-ball shot-making accuracy and decision-making. While Indiana's backcourt is currently deep, and we're still talking about a No. 26 pick from Belmont, Sheppard does give off NBA-ready vibes for a role that calls for catch-and-shooting, transition, cutting, finishing and a low mistake rate.

Role: Bench

Usage: Scoring specialist

Nick Smith Jr. should be capable of overtaking James Bouknight and Cody Martin for backup 2-guard minutes.

The early-season knee injury at Arkansas seems to be behind him. Tuesday's 33-point outburst in summer league highlighted his signature shot-making, three-level scoring and self-creation potential.

And though some of the one-on-one stuff may take longer to translate at the NBA level, Smith has a suitable skill set for off-ball scoring with his spot-up shooting and cutting.

He even flashed some occasional defensive activity in college, something that will help him earn more playing time behind LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier.

Role: G League

A knee injury cost Brice Sensabaugh workout season and summer league so far. And with Keyonte George lighting up Las Vegas, Ochai Agbaji expected to make a jump and Talen Horton-Tucker presumably ahead on the depth chart, the No 28 pick of the draft will likely spend time this year in the G League.

Three-point shooting will give him a chance to earn a call-up at some point, as will his ability to play small forward at 6'6", 235 pounds.

Limited passing and defensive quickness reduce Sensabaugh's margin for error. But a simplified role in Utah could still value the rookie's three-level scoring and shot-making versatility.

Role: G League

The rise of Christian Braun, the signing of Justin Holiday and Peyton Watson's expected emergence will block Julian Strawther from the rotation. The No. 29 pick will even have to fight off second-round pick Hunter Tyson, another dangerous shooter who averaged 9.6 rebounds in college and offers more physicality at 6'8", 215 pounds.

Strawther is a fundamentally sound, versatile shot-maker with textbook shot prep, movement shooting and the ability to put the ball down and use floaters. But he's likely to struggle on defense early, and the current roster suggests it will take an injury for the rookie to get NBA minutes.

Role: G League

Load management or injuries to Kawhi Leonard or Paul George could open a door for Kobe Brown. But he'll still be behind Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris, Amir Coffey, Robert Covington and even Brandon Boston Jr.

The Clippers are just too deep at the wing and forward spots for a rookie in a veteran rotation.

Brown will play most of the season in the G League, working to improve his body and continue strengthening his connector skill set. His game should eventually fit the NBA well, as the 6'8" Brown has the ability to handle the ball, stretch the floor and pass.